The fastest-shrinking economies of the developing world, from China to India, will all be faster-growing countries in the next few years, according to a report from the United Nations World Economic Forum (WEF).
This is because they have much less government debt and are facing a far more difficult transition to a more stable global economy.
The fastest-recovering economies are emerging markets, such as Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa, the WEF said in a new study released on Monday.
They are also the fastest to grow in size.
The emerging markets have the fastest growing economies, followed by China, which is forecast to grow by 4.7 percent this year and 8.1 percent in 2030, according the study.
“These are the fastest economies of our time.
They are going to be the fastest growth economies in the world,” said Dr Peter Neumann, a senior fellow at the WEI and the author of the study titled “The Future of the World’s Fastest-Growing Economies”.
“We’re seeing a global revolution that’s taking place,” he told Reuters news agency.
“In 10 years time, the fast-growing societies of the future will be emerging markets.”
Brazil, Russia and India are projected to grow at least 5 percent this century, compared to 4 percent in the US, 5 percent in France, and 3.6 percent in Germany.
The WEF’s forecast for emerging markets this century is that by 2030, they will grow by 5.6 to 7 percent.
“That is a lot of potential growth in developing countries, and it will have profound impacts on growth in developed countries,” Dr Neumann said.
In the meantime, emerging markets will face a transition to more stable economies, he said.
“The challenge will be to be ready for that, as the fastest economy will be the one that is going to change the world.”
In addition to China, emerging economies are expected to dominate the fastest expansion of global GDPs over the next decade.
The WEF predicts China will grow at 9.6 per cent this year, then 6.7 per cent in 2020 and 6.4 per cent by 2025.
Brazil and Russia will grow more than 10 per cent each, and India will rise by more than 8 percent, the study said.
Other fast-recoiling economies include South Africa and Turkey, which are forecast to increase by more 10 percent in 2025.
“It is the fastest, but it is also the slowest, the slow-moving, and we have a lot more time before it really starts to accelerate,” Dr Neil Saunders, director of the International Institute for Sustainable Development in Singapore, told Reuters.
The fast-shrinkers are not just in emerging markets.
The United States, for example, is forecast by the WEf to shrink by 2.9 per cent a year, with a global average of 2.3 per cent growth.
Dr Saunders said emerging economies were not likely to overtake developed countries in terms of economic growth in the long run, but they were likely to experience rapid population growth.
“There’s a lot less growth in Africa,” he said, referring to Africa’s rapidly shrinking population.
“This is partly because they’re smaller, but also because they are growing fast.”
The WEFs study, titled “Emerging Markets: The Future of Growth and Development”, was published in collaboration with the Institute for Economics and Peace, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the International Centre for Economic and Policy Research.